November 2007 Cover Story

However, the CCRF says that an upturn in the property sector will be crucial and will determine the strength and speed of any recovery as will interest rates and fiscal policies of the post-election Federal Government. The Foundation’s report on the Coast’s economy for the September half year was presented to a gathering of business leaders in late October.

Employment
Employment growth over the past year has faltered compared with the growth of the previous twelve months (2005-2006). The number of people employed in the Central Coast at the end of August 2007 was 139,900. Central Coast unemployment in August at 7.9% was well above the State average of 4.4%. Over the past year job losses occurred in the retail trade, property and business services, personal and other services, manufacturing, health and community services. Retail trade showed a decline of 2,700 jobs over the year followed by a decline of 1,975 jobs in property and business services. On the other hand jobs in the construction industry increased by 2,375.

Residential building approvals
Building approvals have been in constant decline since June 2004 however the March and June 2007 quarters have shown increases evidenced by an underlying demand for housing in the region.

Non-residential building approvals
Apart from a spike in June 2007 non-residential building approvals have, generally, been in decline since September 2005. The Foundation points out that the June spike could be in respect to a single large development approved in the relevant period.

Residential sales prices
Residential house prices in the Central Coast have been declining in value for the whole of two years from March 2005 to March 2007. However the rate of decline slowed in late 2006 and early 2007 with the results for September 2007 likely to reflect this more recent trend. The Foundation says that the perceived value of residential housing has important impacts upon residents’ confidence in the economy and willingness to spend. Consumer confidence over the medium term (the next twelve months) was reasonably buoyant in September 2007, suggesting this perception of a possible recovery in the property sector and a more buoyant economy overall.

Consumer confidence
In September 2007, Central Coast residents’ expectations for the regional economy over the next three months were relatively pessimistic with most residents expecting economic conditions to worsen. This most likely reflects the generally subdued economic conditions over much of the last two years. However, expectations for the economy of the next twelve months are more optimistic and considerably higher than in September 2006.

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